Discovering the world of scenario planning

Scenarios can't predict the future, so what's the point?

That's right-scenarios can't predict the future but they are a mechanism to imagine multiple futures and gives us an opportunity to learn from 'future history'.
It enable us to learn from the future rather than use our past to predict an outcome. The opportunity to explore future environments and how they may impact on us enables us to be free from the constraints of our knowing. It gives us the opportunity to design a history of the future to inform our present actions. Scenario planning enables us to challenge the robustness of our futures. Scenario planning enables us to identify the strategic implications of our imagined futures. By identify a number of potential futures we can then evaluate our strategies across all of those and begin to see those strategies that will address a number of imagined futures. It gives us the confidence to look at what actions we must take now to respond to these multiple scenarios.
The point is that the use of scenarios supplements traditional planning processes. It provides us with an opportunity to explore multiple futures in way that enables us to relate to each other in a different way.
It gives us a rich range of possibility. Who would not want that?

Adam Kahane at Ci2012 - "Transformative Scenario Planning"

Provisional Essay Plan-review of change model

What is my goal for writing this essay? My goal for writing this essay is to understand how the implementation of a kaitiakitanga framework can be strengthened through the adoption of Creative Commons. I will need to consider the impact of this policy framework in terms of the multiple ecologies within the arena of change.

What information do I need to include? I need to include the change model(s) I will be referencing and their links to my context. I would like to include:

-an ecological framework (the arena of change)
-a Concerns-Based Adoption Model (CBAM) source
-a Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) source
-a Learning/ Adoption Trajectory (LAT) source
-a source based around Roger's diffusion of innovation theory

I will also include information around indigenous knowledge in a digital context, principles of  kaitiakitanga, and Creative Commons/ OER.

How will the information be organised?

Introduction:
Introduce the principles of kaitiakitanga and Creative Commons.
Explain why the adoption of Creative Commons is important within a guardianship framework and how this will influence the school:
1. at a policy level-promotion and protection of knowledge
2. at a classroom level-the 4 r's of openess (Wiley, 2009)-impacts in terms of practice
Link this to the Arena of change - Ecological perspective NZGOAL, Creative Commons Aotearoa, Policy development.

Body:
Description of the change model(s)
-LAT-how it applies to the implementation of kaitiakitanga
-CBAM-how it can be used to support the change process

Review of the Implications
-LAT review including limitations and possible adaptations
-CBAM review including limitations and possible adaptations

Conclusion:
Summary of findings, recommendations

annotated bibliography 4

Schroff, R.H., Deneen, C.C., & Ng, E.M.W. (2011). Analysis of the technology acceptance model in examining students' behavioural intention to use an e-portfolio system. Australian Journal of Educational Technology, 27(4), 600-618.Description: The paper analyses the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in terms of students' use of an electronic portfolio system in the specific framework of their course. The authors developed a usage questionaire based on existing TAM instruments and modified where appropriate. The responses to the survey were in terms of perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), attitudes towards usage (ATU) and behavioural intention to use (BIU). The study showed that students' perceived ease of use (PEOU) had a significant impact on attitude towards use (ATU). The perception aorund ease of use impacted strongly on perceived usefulness (PU). The results suggest that the TAM is a relaible theoretical model.
Evaluation: The paper is credible in its findings and confirms the results of other studies. The link between perceived ease of use (PEOU) and perceived usefulness (PU) is strong,  and will ultimately impact on the use of technologies. This is an important consideration when looking at the investment in and introduction of new technologies into an environment. It is also important information for designers to consider when they are looking at user interfaces. The issues Microsoft is currently encountering with Windows 8 is a good example of this.

Sherry, L., &  Gibson, D. (2002).The path to teacher leadership in educational technology. Comptemporary Issues in Technology and Teacher Education, 2(2), 178-203.

Description: The paper looks at existing research on adoption models and highlights two key limitations: firstly the assumption an education system is not a single social system, but is in fact multiple systems within systems, and secondly traditional models ignore external factors that impact on systems with a school, such as governental initiatives and worldwide connectivity. The paper then goes on to discuss the Learning/ Adoption Trajectory (LAT) model. This model puts the teacher at the centre of the system and identifies four stages through which the teachers when they learn to use a new technology. These are: a) teacher as learner, b) teacher as adopter, c) teacher as co-learner, and d) teacher as reaffirmer or rejecter. A fifth dimension has been added to the model with e) teacher as leader.

Evaluation: The paper presents a number of case studies that show how this theory translates into practice when adopting new technologies. The LAT is an effective model as it keeps the teacher at the centre of the process, but also takes into account the external factors that impact the multiple ecologies. I do like the simplicity of this model, and its focus on the learner, in this case being the teacher.

Learning Reflection One

Tena koutou katoa

I welcome the opportunity to refine my reflection processes, but by that same token I am hesitant to commit my thinking over the last three weeks to my blog. When I look at the journey I have travelled since 8th July there is a very strong C theme: change, copyright and Creative Commons. And tattooing. But that's a T and I'll come to that later.

There has been a distinct shift in what I imagined I was signing up for and where my research has taken me. Not that this is a bad place to be, but I had entered this course to look at a technology we were wanting to implement in the school, then perhaps look at a case study around this. Nice and safe, and not really requiring much of me. I am certainly in a different place by the end of week 3.

I haven't been engaged in distance learning for about a decade, so was impressed by the interface for the course. I did initially have difficulty remembering the pathways I needed to find the information for the first week of the course, although found those quite quickly. I did discover near the end of the first week that I had missed the page with the indicative readings and had a mild anxiety attack. Just mild.

I felt identifying an area of research within the first few days challenging, as I still felt I did not have an overview of the course and where it was going. This created a level of dis-ease for me, particularly when looking at what was required from me for the second assignment. I think the way Niki describes how innovations disrupt existing ecologies. My ecology was certainly disrupted!
My area of personal interest is around the impact of digital technologies on the notion of ownership of indigenous knowledge. This is particularly important for us as a school as our population is 100% Maori/ Pasefika. From my initial scope I found there was little available research, and most of this had been undertaken in Australia or Canada. I could not locate much local research. A local principal has the same area of interest and directed me to some foundation readings that have clarified what I am asking as I wasn't clear about that until midway through last week.

Board elections occurred recently, and I have the opportunity to work with the first board that I have shaped over the last two and a half years, and to look forward to where we are going over the next three year term.

Now the teaching and learning practices have been aligned to current pedagogy it is now time to step up from the micro to the macro level and identify what we need to look like and where we are going as a school. Our visioning process in 2011 generated our vision- Transforming Communities. Due to the nature of our community there is a belief that our children will be the agents of change in their homes, and that through their learning they will re-engage the adults around them in the process of learning. Many of our families have lived in the area for three generations, and many have had negative experiences of schooling. The regeneration of our community starts with our kids.

To achieve this we need to develop a responsive policy framework, and to do this we are beginning to consider the principles of the Treaty and how they look for us in our setting. Kaitiakitanga (guardianship) is a key principle of this process, and our challenge is how to promote and protect the indigenous knowledge located in our community?

This is where this research process gained traction. The change in our setting will be the introduction of a  kaitiakitanga framework and how Creative Commons can be used to protect and promote indigenous knowledge.
The research will also look at whether Creative Commons could be adapted to respond to the needs of our community.

I must say though that through this process I had the urge to scrap this completely and go back to looking at something a little bit familiar like how social media can be used to facilitate home/ school partnership. But I didn't.

And this is where the tattooing comes into play. I had booked two days of tattoo work months ago for the second week of the break. I had a three day residential in the first and our PLD for our teaching team this week, so a very small window was available. I downloaded over thirty readings to cover over two eight hour days. Just sitting.

My tattooist has a Masters of Fine Arts, so we began talking about his thesis, and the ownership of indigenous knowledge. We also talked about the development of archiving processes, and research methodology. By the morning of day two we were engaged in a critique of copyright and IP law. So I would like to say thanks Stan for giving me some clarity around my own thinking. I also wonder what CC attributes you would put on the beautiful tattoo work you have done on me.

Sometimes support comes from the most unlikely of places.

Annotated Bibliography 3

Davis, N.E.(2010). Global interdisciplinary research into the diffusion of information technology innovations in education. Researching IT in education: theory, practice and future directions, 142-149. 

Description: This chapter reviews the diffusion of information technology innovations through an ecological perspective. The author notes that reviews of interdisciplinary literature on the diffusion of innovations focuses on innovation primarily from the perspective of those wanting the innovation adopted. The ecology of the classroom is described and examples of the impact of the introduction of a new technology are discussed as examples. The chapter concludes that the ecological perspective is a good fit for describing the diffusion of information technologies. It is also identifies that the process of diffusion is complex, because it impacts on and is impacted by multiple ecologies. Knowledge of the process of diffusion is important as this may speed up or slow down the process of diffusion.
Evaluation: This chapter is from a credible source references a number of the and effectively reviews the key diffusion theories, particularly in an educational context. A pertinent point for me was the recommendation that published research is reviewed and critiqued from an ecological perspective. The consideration of multiple ecologies and how they work in facilitating (and in some cases frustrating) the diffusion of technologies is also a consideration for my research. 

Robinson, L.(2009). A summary of diffusion of innovations. Retrieved July 19, 2013.

Description: In this article the author attempts to explain how innovations are adopted. the author describes an innovation as an idea, a behaviour, or an object that is perceived as new by its audience. He identifies three insights into the diffusion of innovation: i) the qualities that make an innovation spread quickly, ii) the importance of peer-peer conversations and networks, and iii) understanding the needs of the different user segments. The five qualities of an innovation that can advance this process are: relative advantage, compatibility, ease of use, trialability and observable results. The article also identifies the different levels of adoption of an innovation and strategies to engage the more risk aversive in the process.
Evaluation: This article provides a good overview of the literature around the diffusion of innovations and enabled me to understand the process is a simplistic way. If there is an advantage to the user in adopting an innovation, the more likely the innovation will be adopted. Strategies to engage more reluctant users in the adoption of an innovation was very useful this term at school as we look to adopt a new technology school-wide.

mOOCing

Tena koutou, Fa'atalofa atu, Malo e lelei, Fakalofa Lehi atu, Taloha ni

My name is Wayne MacGillivray and I am the principal of Mayfield School in Otara, a low socio-economic suburb in South Auckland, New Zealand. I am a father of five and am studying towards my Masters of Education. I am enjoying the balancing act between leading a school, raising a family, and my new learning. I have been at my school for two and a half years and we are moving into our second cycle of transformation-that being at a policy level. Our community is 100% Maori/ Pasefika, and our challenge is developing a policy framework that is responsive to our needs.

Information technologies are seen as an integral part of this transformation.

I look forward to learning with you.

Naku noa na

Wayne